Can You Predict Employee Turnovers?

Not many employers would care if low-performing employees resign. Still, they would be devastated if a top performer leaves, especially if they didn't show any signs of unhappiness at work. Of course, the unmistakable sign would be that they just received a better offer from another company. But what if that's not the reason why they left?

According to a Chief HR Officer, Omer Aziz has created his way of predicting when employees may leave your organisation.

Sometimes, it can be evident if an employee is leaving soon.

The Formula to Predict Employee Turnover

Employees look for other jobs for so many reasons, but Aziz simplified the main causes of employee fatigue into only five criteria. According to him, the employees who are the most "at-risk" of leaving are those who:

Have not seen a title change or promotion in over a year.
Have not seen a wage increase in over a year.
Were highly rated during the last two performance reviews.
Have a commute over one hour and fifteen minutes. *
Experienced a life change in the year before.

* Aziz explained that this is the "tipping point" in his country, Canada and urges HR professionals to measure the point at which a commute would become tiresome in their specific city.

If you feel your employee lives far from the workplace and takes a long time to reach the office, they are likely to find a new job that's closer to where they live.

Top-performing employees who have not experienced any changes in position, salary, or responsibilities may find opportunities elsewhere for a new challenge. Long commutes and life changes, such as getting married, having kids, or a death in the family can also influence an employee's decision to leave.

Does the formula work?

Out of the 270 employees at Aziz's former organisation, only 12 names met the first criteria listed. He reached out to all of the employees' managers, explained his methodology, and warned that their employees might be on the risk of quitting.

Unfortunately, not many managers heed his warning, except for one. Five days after Aziz compiled his list, one of the at-risk employees scheduled a meeting with his superior to discuss pay raise.

Thanks to the heads-up from Aziz, the manager was prepared for the conversation and was able to negotiate a compensation increase for the employee. Satisfied with his new salary, the employee continued to work for the company.

Your top-performing employee is one of your most significant assets. Don't let them go away.

Surprises can still happen

Even though he came up with the formula, he did not expect that one of the names on his list belonged to a Managing Director. The Managing Director was a dedicated executive leader who had stayed with the organisation for over a decade.

Aziz called the CEO to tell him that the Managing Director was on his list. Sadly, the CEO quickly dismissed his concerns, saying that he's been talking to the Managing Director every day and thinks that he was doing just fine.

Assured by the CEO, Aziz felt there was no need to worry. It turns out that the Managing Directed handed in his resignation letter eight weeks later.

What was the issue? Apparently, the Managing Director's commute was two and a half hours every day, and he and his wife had just adopted two children. According to him, his commute was taking its toll, and he needed to spend more time with his family.

The Managing Director accepted an offer at a startup that was just a 15-minute walk from his house.

What can we learn from this formula?

Six weeks after Aziz made his list, five staff resigned, and one negotiated a pay raise. He had mixed feelings about the effectiveness of the formula.

"Now, on the one hand, I was really proud I predicted this little train wreck, but on the other hand, I'm not very proud because these trainwrecks still happened. Next time I have to not only predict but also take fast action."

Aziz encourages other HR practitioners to run similar experiments. He also encourages individuals not just to predict the future, but to be proactive and take actions before the employee leaves the organisation.

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Source: Namely